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And Then There Were 7

Barry Sadovsky

June 22, 2026

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President Donald Trump on Friday reiterated his blame on Presidents Obama and Trudeau for Russia’s attack upon Ukraine as the former G-8 (now the G-7, following Russia’s expulsion in 2014) drew to a close. With echoes of his photo-op comments regarding Italian PM Giorgia Meloni still rankling the atmosphere, the American President is threatening to impose 100% taxes on French wine unless France repeals its digital services tax. Thus the forum of world leaders came and went: the world reiterated its support for Ukraine, China was scolded for imbalanced trade and pollution policies, Iran may have relinquished its desire for nukes, and AI industry leaders had lunch with the world’s political honchos.

US

In the US, Kevin Walsh left little doubt that he intends to shake the Fed up when Wednesday’s FOMC minutes were published — short, dry, and with no forward guidance, which Chairman Walsh considers irrelevant in this day and age. The hawkish language pushed the dollar up to a one-year high, as chances for a rate hike by September currently stand at 68%, but then abated as global optimism and falling oil prices raised smiles. Layoffs remain low, unemployment claims fell yet again, pending home sales increased by 3.8%, and retail sales increased by nearly a full percent in May.

The S&P is up 9.6% year-to-date — its second straight week of gains — as the Nasdaq led the week with a 2.43% increase. Walsh believes his bank’s governing committee can “deliver price stability,” despite high personal consumption expenditures inflation, expected to hit 3.6% in 2026. Unfortunately for home buyers, Fed policies may mean higher mortgages (which are not set by the Fed but rather follow the 10-year Treasury notes’ yield, which was up following the FOMC minutes, but dropped back down the following day).

US Purchasing Manager Indexes will be out Tuesday afternoon at 1:45pm GMT. Expect a 3-tick drop in services and a half point in manufacturing — still in expansionist territory.

EU

European stocks are up on geopolitics this week, with the Stoxx 600 gaining a percent and a half over the month. In Brussels, leaders are beginning to realize they have no choice but to actually act against the union’s widening trade deficit with China — now at about a billion euros per day — and that country’s dumping policies. Unfortunately, while France is advocating for actual measures, Germany and Spain remain dovish. German wholesale prices increased by nearly 6% YoY in May, down from last month’s 6.3% record.

Meanwhile, the pound added a quarter percent on the dollar Friday, as Labour hopeful Andy Burnham beat incumbent PM Starmer in a parliamentary by-election and as the Bank of England maintained its 3.75% interest rate on Thursday. Bucking the general European trend, the FTSE 100 lost 0.69% over the week.

On Tuesday at 7:30am GMT, prop traders may want to watch out for German PMIs, followed one hour later by the UK’s.

Asia

The yen continues downward, as April’s government intervention gains are wiped out by the currency’s 2-year low. On Tuesday, Japan’s central bank raised interest rates a quarter percent to an even 1% — its highest since 1995 — and stated that it plans to raise rates at least once more by the end of the year to forestall threats of over-inflation. The bank considers the country’s strong corporate profits and tight labor market sufficient insurance against an economic downturn. Indeed, customs exports were up 17% YoY in May, and markets surged during the week, with the Nikkei 225 hitting an all-time high after gaining 7.62%.

China’s retail sales fell by over half a percent in May, while property investments plunged 16.2% YoY. Industrial production, on the other hand, increased by 4.5% — as expected. The Shanghai Composite rose 1.46%, but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 3.2%, suggesting a weakening in offshore sentiment.

Prop traders should be awake at half past midnight on Tuesday morning GMT for Japan’s PMIs, where activity is expected to show a 1% drop.

Commodities

Gold plunged 150 points on Wednesday after the FOMC’s hawkish statement, continuing a 3-week bearish trend that is expected to test the 4140 level as markets open Monday.

As for oil, with the EIA last week slashing oil demand projections for 2027, Gulf producers are preparing to increase exports, lowering price pressures further after the perceived Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire signed Friday. The commodity showed an 8% drop over the week before settling nervously for the weekend. Bloomberg reports about 31 supertankers ready to sail and 6 already departed, as US gasoline prices fall below the four-dollar mark. Meanwhile, the narrative over whether Hormuz remains open or is subject to Iranian control remains open-ended.

As usual, the EIA on Wednesday at 3:30pm GMT will tell its story, following last week’s 8.2m-barrel drawdown.

And Polish prop traders who made a killing in the oil market over the past year should watch out: the Polish government is planning a 60% tax on oil-trading profits made during the closure of the Hormuz Straits.

Equities

Analysts have been taking a long, hard look at Alibaba ever since the Pentagon added it to a blacklist last week over the company’s alleged Chinese military ties. The shares’ 45% drop from recent highs could offer prop traders an interesting long-term entry point for an undervalued stock, as it ends the week well below its moving average with a marked “buy” RSI. The company’s balance sheet remains robust, according to Seeking Alpha, “with ample liquidity to debt ratio.” Its advances in AI are well-marked by its recent AI robotics models release, its new M890 chip, and its cloud segment — which grew 38% YoY.

Otherwise, this coming week expect earnings reports from Carnival Cruises on Tuesday (before the bell) and FedEx on Wednesday after closing. For the former, Wall Street expects a 1-cent drop in earnings on a $10m increase in revenues, after the company announced that 85% of its 2026 cabins were already sold out. As for FedEx, this first report following its LTL offload should have prop traders cautiously bullish, as revenues are expected to jump an impressive 8.8% to $24.18bn.