One Prop Trader a Day - Stefano Manfredi: React, Never Predict

Quick intro – who are you, and what do you trade?

I am Stefano, a 34-year-old Italian who enjoys trading Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures.

How did you get into prop trading, and what changed for you?

I started approaching prop firms after trying to trade penny stocks and options. I moved to futures because they do not have time decay, but after a while I had to go with props, since the margins are really high.

What is the first thing you bought with trading money that felt like proof it was working?

To be honest, I am not someone who spends much. I think I just kept living my life with small improvements. You never know what to expect, so staying humble and keeping my feet on the ground means a lot to me.

How many times did you fail before getting funded? What kept you going?

I failed a lot of times seeking the perfect strategy. Understanding that the market is irrational made me realize there is no perfection in this business, and that kept me going.

What is the single most expensive lesson you have paid for?

One day I opened a small personal account with around 2,500 dollars, and by mistake I entered with two Nasdaq minis instead of micros. The position could actually have been good, but it pulled back too much, and you can imagine what happened after that.

What was your lowest point in trading? Did you ever consider quitting?

My lowest point was when I realized I could not manage my emotions, because I did not have a real way of reading the market. I was in panic and felt lost. I thought about quitting several times, but there was always something that kept me going.

Did trading ever affect you mentally or emotionally?

I went through all the emotions everyone talks about: FOMO, revenge trading, stress, and self-doubt. Journaling every day, and every idea, helped me build confidence over time.

What does your trading style look like today?

I trade Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures using mostly tick frames. I learned to understand orderflow and Auction Market Theory, which is the edge of my trading, and at the same time I love using options greeks to understand where market makers are exposed and their direction.

What is a typical trading day for you?

I usually check the previous day’s close with volume profile levels, then I look for gamma levels during regular market hours. Based on that, I understand where the biggest volume is pushing price, and I manage my risk around those levels using orderflow.

Walk us through your most recent losing trade.

Two weeks ago I took a nice short based on a big positive gamma level and strong buyer absorption in the orderflow, but the price started stalling and slowly pushing higher. We were still in a positive gamma squeeze, so I took the loss and moved on. I would take it again, because the setup was very nice; it was just risk management.

What is a popular trading rule you completely ignore, and why?

There are a lot of popular rules in trading that are very important, and ignoring them would be a big mistake. What I ignore are the kinds of strategies that make you try to predict the market. A trader needs to react, never predict.

Do people around you understand what you do? How do they react?

Here in Italy there is strong financial illiteracy, so finding people in this industry is tough. I stopped trying to explain after I understood that they think about this business as a 50/50 game, without even trying to understand a little.

How has trading impacted your lifestyle?

What I love about my job is that I do not depend on anyone; I am free to choose where to work from. I am able to do this after years of struggling, though.

What separates you from someone who washed out at their third evaluation?

Everyone has problems and issues. I worked a lot on myself, starting with fears that could have come from when I was a kid, and with believing in myself more and more.

What advice would you give yourself one year ago?

I would tell myself: keep going, kid, never stop learning, and stay humble forever.

If prop firms disappeared tomorrow, would you still be trading? Doing what?

I have my personal account, so I would keep trading even without prop firms, for sure.

If I gave you a $1,000,000 funded account today, what would you do in the first 7 days?

A 1,000,000 dollar funded account is something really big. I would focus on building a good buffer and managing it step by step, growing the size gradually. It is the same approach I have with a 25k or a 50k account. Trading is about consistency and size.