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One Man’s Bull is Another Man’s Bear

Barry Sadovsky

July 13, 2026

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Despite global equities closing higher Friday on energy and semiconductors, markets on either side of the Atlantic seemed to be in disagreement as the week closed – the DAX perturbed by the returning war of words between Iran and the US, while American traders allowed optimism to rule, as Q2 earnings season enters the fray.

US

With all eyes turning this week to Wall Street, Morgan Stanley on Thursday told Reuters that M&A activities in 2026 are expected to “hit a record $6.4 trillion”, now that high interest rates and market volatility are no longer threatening deal-makers. Q2 activity has already shown a 64% increase YoY, especially thanks to the encouraging environment wielded by Trump regulators.

Wednesday’s FOMC minutes reflected inflation concerns but stressed that further interest rate activities will depend solely on incoming data. At present, chances of a quarter percent hike stand at about 25%. Last week also showed a ½% drop in ISM’s non-manufacturing index, a ½% rise in S&P’s services PMI, and a concerning drop in existing home sales.

On Monday, expect the US Federal budget balance, while June’s consumer inflation is expected to come in flat MoM, remaining below the YoY high of 4.2% in May. Producer Price Inflation (PPI), Wednesday at half past noon, is expected to increase by half a percent. On Thursday, expect good news on retail sales, which is expected to show a minuscule half percent increase, and also a similar drop in initial jobless claims.

North of the border, Canada’s central bank on Wednesday is expected to hold interest rates steady at 2.25%.

EU

Good news is expected in London on Thursday, when the government is expected to show a 0.1% increase in May’s GDP, still below the 3-month moving average, the latter which is expected to continue falling, for now. Meanwhile, the Pound is at a 1-month high against the USD and a year-long high against the Euro – all primarily thanks to a buying spree of British companies by foreign entities and better-than-expected fundamental data. Last week, the IMF upgraded the UK’s growth forecasts to 1%. However, the nation’s Office for Budget Responsibility’s annual report warns against spending and rising debt, which may lead to higher interest rates.

Across the pond, the ECB is back to inflation slaying, as Gulf tensions threaten to push oil prices back to April highs. The bank raised rates, as expected, last month and threatens to do so twice more before the year ends – its next meeting on July 22nd. German inflation in June fell 3 ticks to 2.3% with exports up 0.9% MoM in May, while household consumption in the Netherlands increased by 1.8% YoY.

The EU will publish CPIs on Friday.

Meanwhile, Spain faces a US trade embargo over its refusal to stand by its NATO investment commitments and its refusal to allow the passage of US aircraft targeting the Iran conflict.

Asia

Australian consumer confidence will be in our sights Tuesday at half past midnight, followed by China’s trade balance at 3am. For prop traders focusing on the Australian Dollar, expect the former to rise 2 points to 82.6; those looking at yuan products should keep in mind that Chinese exports rose by 19.4% in May. The following day, China is expected to publish a 3 tick drop in Q2 GDP to 4.7% YoY. June’s CPI here came in at 1%, while producer prices increased 4.1% YoY.

In Japan, in an attempt to boost a weakening Yen, the government has announced it will increase market investments by the country’s largest pension fund, which is owned by the Japanese government. Finance Minister Katayama’s speech pushed the yen upwards dramatically, while the Nikkei last week lost 1.7%. Inflation continues edging up, with a 7.1% increase in June’s wholesale inflation, while nominal wages only increased 3.2% YoY and real wages a mere 1.4%.

Prop traders should keep an eye on Japan’s industrial production data, Tuesday.

Commodities

Oil came under pressure as the week closed, after the US Treasury revoked Iran’s oil sales waiver as the Iran-US ceasefire broke down. OPEC+ nations, on the other hand, have agreed to a 188,000 barrel per day increase in production (bringing the total increase to nearly a mB per day since the war started). Following last week’s 3 mB increase in US oil inventories, Wednesday at 2:30pm will be the time for prop traders to keep their eyes on the EIA’s weekly report.

Equities

Last week ended on a sour note for cloud providers Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Oracle, as the British government defined cloud service providers as third-party providers to the financial sector (which provides nearly 10% of the nation’s total GDP). The move places these firms under the much stricter oversight of the Bank of England, the FCA, and the Regulations Authority, to prevent disruptions arising from cyber attacks and technology outages.

Quarterly earnings season kicks off this week with finance giants Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all delivering their stats Tuesday, followed by BlackRock, Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and General Electric on Thursday. Optimism reigns, with Reuters analysts anticipating a 24% YoY rise in S&P earnings across the board – a 5-year record.

United Airlines stock dropped 1.8% Friday on fuel costs rising 77%, despite soundly beating expectations. Earnings per share came in at $1.56, vs the expected $1.51, and net income at $1.027b, compared to the expected $985.2m.

On Thursday, PepsiCo published its quarterly report, missing estimates as US consumers tighten their inflation-ridden belts. EPS at $2.20 missed by a cent while revenue came in almost a $¼bn higher than expected. At a 52-week low, Seeking Alpha believes the stock is vastly underpriced, as evidenced by its low-range RSI and Friday close that’s well below the moving average – all thanks to international sales more than making up for US performance. Prop traders should look out for the correction Monday.